The dollar was down sharply on Friday and is up slightly this morning. In general, the US dollar has been weak thanks to a weak inflation outlook and concerns regarding the upcoming Senate tax vote. Looking at news, President Trump is due to meet Senate Republicans in order to discuss the upcoming vote on Tuesday. Given differences between the House and Senate tax plans, considerable time and effort my be required in order to reconcile the two versions. Looking at data, Core PCE figures (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) are set to be announced on Thursday. If Core PCE is stronger than expected, the dollar may break out of its current bearish trend.
USD/JPY is flat and currently trading just above 111.40. EUR/USD is slightly down today and currently just above 1.1910. The pound is down today, with GBP/USD currently above 1.3310.
This week, we'll see economic data relating to housing, inflation and economic survey figures. Later today, we'll see New Home Sales figures. On Tuesday, we'll get Case-Shiller Home Prices. On Wednesday, we'll see Q3 GDP and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures. We'll also see Pending Home Sales. On Thursday, we'll get all-important Core PCE figures. We'll also see personal spending, initial jobless claims and the Chicago PMI. Finally on Friday, we'll see ISM manufacturing PMI and prices paid. We'll also see Markit manufacturing PMIs. Last week, FOMC minutes worsened the inflation outlook.
As the dollar falls on a weaker inflation outlook, we are downgrading the US dollar to bearish. Note that the currency is looking oversold in the short-term time frame. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators when looking at a daily chart of the US dollar index.
As the dollar falls on tax-related disappointment, we are downgrading the US dollar to bearish. The currency is neither overbought nor oversold today, and trades within a normal range. This is based on technical indicators when looking at a weekly chart.