The US dollar ended the day flat yesterday and is down slightly this morning. Despite strong Q3 GDP growth figures, high consumer confidence and accelerating house price growth, the dollar is trading sideways. This is happening because of the importance of upcoming Core PCE figures (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) and the Senate tax vote. While economic data has been strong, weak inflation has kept the US dollar in check. Looking at tax news, CNBC is reporting that the Senate has voted to begin debating the bill. Given that the maximum time allocated to the debate is 20 hours, the Senate is expected to vote on the bill by Friday.
USD/JPY is up and currently trading just above 112.20. EUR/USD is up today and currently just above 1.1860. The pound is also up today, with GBP/USD currently above 1.3450.
This week, we'll see economic data relating to housing, inflation and economic survey figures. New Home Sales figures rose to 10-year highs on Monday (0.685m vs 0.625m expected). Case-Shiller Home Prices beat expectations (6.2% vs. 6.1% expected) while consumer confidence rose to multi-year highs (129.5 vs. 124 expected). Q3 GDP beat expectations (3.3% vs. 3.2% expected) while Core Personal Expenditures met expectations (1.5% quarter-on-quarter). Pending Home Sales were higher than the previous print (1.2% vs. -5.4%). Later today, we'll get all-important Core PCE figures. We'll also see personal spending, initial jobless claims and the Chicago PMI. Finally on Friday, we'll see ISM manufacturing PMI and prices paid. We'll also see Markit manufacturing PMIs. Last week, FOMC minutes worsened the inflation outlook.
Following doubts regarding Trump's ability to get the tax bill through Congress, we downgrading the dollar to bearish. Note that the currency is trading within normal conditions in the short-term time frame. Our analysis is based on various technical indicators when looking at a daily chart of the US dollar index.
As the dollar rebounds from its lows in early September, we are upgrading the US dollar to neutral. The currency is neither overbought nor oversold today, and trades within a normal range. This is based on technical indicators when looking at a weekly chart.