Euro - EUR

The euro is the common currency for the Eurozone, one of the world's largest regions in terms of GDP. The currency is fairly unique as it is shared by several countries with independent political and economic policies. The euro is the second-most traded currency in the world after the US dollar, according to a recent survey by the Bank for International Settlements. Specifically, the euro is involved in 19% of total foreign exchange trading. 

Outlook
Bearish

Euro Outlook

Outlook
Bearish

Updated 

Analysis

In our last commentary on the euro in late August, we wrote that the common currency was set to weaken further thanks to (1) slowing growth, (2) slowing inflation and (3) an outsized speculator long position in euro futures and options. Following the publication of our last commentary, EUR/USD has weakened from 1.1730 – 1.180 (the top-end of its trading range that we update daily on our...

Published 
Tags: Euro

In our last take on the euro in April, we wrote that the bullish case for the currency was running out of drivers. Specifically, we wrote that decelerating Eurozone growth (in rate-of-change terms), changes in trading patterns and overly bullish speculator sentiment was likely to weigh on the euro in the future. At the time, EUR/USD was trading around 1.23, near its 2018 high just above 1.2550. 

Published 
Tags: Euro

Earlier today, we downgraded our euro outlook to neutral in the medium-term, and bearish in the short-term. As the euro runs out of momentum, the trend is now neutral based on quantitative factors such as price, trading volumes and volatility. While forward-looking economic indicators continue to suggest an ongoing expansion, growth appears to be slowing in rate-of-change terms. This is why our p…

Published 
Tags: Euro

Economic calendar