Forex Analysis - Financial News & FX Daily Forecast

Earlier today, we downgraded our euro outlook to neutral in the medium-term, and bearish in the short-term. As the euro runs out of momentum, the trend is now neutral based on quantitative factors such as price, trading volumes and volatility. While forward-looking economic indicators continue to suggest an ongoing expansion, growth appears to be slowing in rate-of-change terms. This is why our p…

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Tags: Euro

The outlook for the pound, while still bullish, is looking less optimistic today. More specifically, factors including the ongoing slowdown in regional growth, lower expectations for a May rate hike, and significant speculator interest in the currency are hampering the rally. Following Brexit, the trade-weighted value of pound sterling (a measure of GBP relative to other currencies) hit an all-t…

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While the outlook for the Canadian dollar looked dire just a few months ago, the currency appears to have recently turned a corner. After looking oversold in late March, the currency managed to strengthen thanks to a rebound in crude oil prices. Two weeks later, the Canadian dollar received more good news as the Trump administration pushed to conclude NAFTA talks at a faster pace. In more recent …

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In our previous take on the US dollar in early February, we wrote that the currency was set to remain weak. At the time, ex-US growth was accelerating, while speculator sentiment was only mildly bearish. While dollar bulls have argued that rate hikes should help the currency, we wrote that expectations for monetary tightening were rising around the world, limiting the impact from the Fed’s action…

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Tags: US dollar

In our previous take on the euro in late February, we wrote that the bullish case for the currency was looking increasingly challenging. At the time, euro speculators were spooked by slowing forward-looking economic indicators, while upcoming political events in Italy and Germany risked the future unity of the region. While our outlook remains mildly bullish, this comes with the significant cavea…

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Tags: Euro

We take a closer look at the Australian dollar forecast, and how domestic and international economic changes are set to impact the currency. From China's slow down to key domestic indicators that reveal slowing growth, we break down why we're changing our outlook on this commodity currency.

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Improving growth and falling political risk are pushing the Euro higher, but constant changes in the landscape put this movement at risk. Significant declining trends will impact the euro forecast - and speculators and traders should take note of the increased risk. 

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Tags: Euro

Looking at last week’s Commitment of Traders report, the only notable changes were relating to net positions in the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and British pound. Changes in positioning were fairly limited for the US dollar, euro, gold and crude oil. Crude oil positions, based on 3-year trailing averages and net speculator positions as a proportion of total open interest, remains at a bullish ex…

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Following the global stock market sell-off earlier this month, the euro was quick to recover most of its losses in a short period of time. While other currencies (such as the Australian dollar or the British pound) never fully recovered, there was no shortage of dip buyers looking to go long the euro. Looking at EUR/USD, it took just four trading days to recover to the critical 1.25 level after t…

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Tags: Euro

Looking at the British pound today, concerns regarding Brexit and the stock market rout are outweighing the Bank of England’s positive economic outlook. As a currency that benefits from rising risk appetite, pound sterling has been selling off sharply in February thanks to fears regarding elevated asset prices. While Bank of England Governor Mark Carney helped the pound last Thursday after saying…

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At MarketsNow, we specialize in clear, data-driven analysis of the foreign exchange market so you have the information you need to make smart investment decisions. Human beings are prone to psychological biases, so decisions made by intuition alone can result in costly errors - which is why using accurate data in your investment process is critical. By basing our forex market analysis process on numbers, we ensure that the information we provide is accurate and based on fact, not pre-conceived notions. Here's an overview of the factors we consider when creating a forex analysis.

Policy

A government's fiscal policies and monetary policies understandably have an impact on currency trading, so it's an important factor to consider as part of any investment analysis. We look at fiscal policy, and the impact of tax rates, government spending and international relations to predict which plans will boost near-term growth - and which policies could have an adverse impact on the strength of a currency.

Monetary policy is also vital to consider in the overall picture of fx market analysis, as central banks can influence the cost of borrowing money by raising or lowering interest rates. This will impact the value and appreciation of a currency against the currency of other countries.

Sentiment

To best analyze sentiment, one of our key sources is the Commitments of Traders (COT) report. The report provides a weekly breakdown of how futures traders are positioned in various markets (including currencies). The report is especially powerful as it categorizes traders into many different categories (e.g. speculators, asset managers, dealers, commercials, etc.). We focus on how speculators are positioned in each currency, narrowing in on any extreme, 'at risk' positions that could indicate a potential direction change in the near future.

Our sentiment analysis is combined with technical data - drawing from the Relative Strength Index and historical tops and bottoms to further bolster our recommendations.

Economic Data

While most media outlets focus on mid-term gains and losses by breaking down economic data into quarters, that information can be a hindrence when it comes to making long-term recommendations. We look at year-over-year movements to shed light on underlying trends that will impact the forex market to gain an accurate, comprehensive view of economic changes that could impact our forex trading analysis.

By analyzing the market through three distinct perspectives, we're able to provide expert forex analysis daily to currency traders and speculators around the globe.