GBP/CAD - British pound to Canadian dollar

GBP/CAD weakened for most of 2016, and especially following the Brexit vote. After strengthening slightly in January 2017, the pair took off in April following Theresa May's call for an early election. As the Conservatives fared poorly in the following election, GBP/CAD gave back most of its initial gains. The Canadian dollar also strengthened substantially in the latter half of 2017, given strong economic growth and interest rate hikes. 

Outlook
Neutral

British pound to Canadian dollar Outlook

Outlook
Neutral

Updated 

British pound analysis

British pound set to weaken further, but some hope on the horizon

In our previous piece on pound sterling, we wrote that the currency was likely to weaken thanks to (1) slowing growth across Europe, (2) excessively bullish speculator sentiment and (3) Brexit-related woes. Thanks to the UK’s significant trading ties with the EU, we wrote that the pound was unlikely to escape a slowdown across the region. Furthermore, speculator positioning in the pound looked ex…

Published 

As British pound falters, outlook now bearish

In our previous analysis on the pound, we claimed that the number of catalysts driving the currency’s bullish trend were running out. At the time, we warned that the rally was running out of momentum, but did not see any evidence that would suggest adopting a bearish stance. Following recent weakness in the British pound, we downgraded our longer-term outlook on the currency to bearish on April 2…

Published 

British pound rally running out of catalysts

The outlook for the pound, while still bullish, is looking less optimistic today. More specifically, factors including the ongoing slowdown in regional growth, lower expectations for a May rate hike, and significant speculator interest in the currency are hampering the rally. Following Brexit, the trade-weighted value of pound sterling (a measure of GBP relative to other currencies) hit an all-t…

Published 

Canadian dollar analysis

Canadian dollar outlook now bearish as commodity prices weaken

The Canadian dollar is the best performing major ‘risk on’ currency this year. Against the US dollar, the loonie is down by 4.5% this year. This beats all other major ‘risk on’ currencies including the euro (-5.3%), British pound (-5.9%) and the Australian dollar (-6.9%). In our last commentary, we argued that the outlook for the Canadian dollar was neutral thanks to rising crude oil prices and …

Published 

Canadian dollar outlook: neutral as currency gets a big break

While the outlook for the Canadian dollar looked dire just a few months ago, the currency appears to have recently turned a corner. After looking oversold in late March, the currency managed to strengthen thanks to a rebound in crude oil prices. Two weeks later, the Canadian dollar received more good news as the Trump administration pushed to conclude NAFTA talks at a faster pace. In more recent …

Published 

Canadian dollar bulls cut their losses: COT Report

Looking at last week’s Commitment of Traders report, the only notable changes were relating to net positions in the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and British pound. Changes in positioning were fairly limited for the US dollar, euro, gold and crude oil. Crude oil positions, based on 3-year trailing averages and net speculator positions as a proportion of total open interest, remains at a bullish ex…

Published 

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