Gold is the world's original reserve currency. The precious metal serves many functions today, including (1) as a barometer of US dollar liquidity conditions, (2) as a means of assessing geopolitical risks and (3) as a hedge against high rates of inflation. The precious metal is particularly sensitive to US real interest rates, with gold prices rising when real rates fall and vice versa.
Gold prices are currently very slightly higher. Yesterday, gold ended the day flat. The precious metal found some welcome support after coming under strong selling pressure earlier this week. After making two consecutive lower-lows, the precious metal showed signs of being oversold. Today's trading range for gold is $1,160 - $1,198.
Looking at the key drivers of gold, both the US dollar and US Treasury yields are flat. The US dollar is marginally lower, while US Treasury yields are flat. Thanks to rebounding risk sentiment (following recent turmoil in emerging markets), the US dollar has stabilized for the time being. In turn, the gold sell-off is taking a breather. Our outlook for gold is bearish.
After its recent top at $1,235, gold is now trading just above $1,177.
Policy: While gold sold off in November 2016 in response to rising inflation expectations (which typically elicits a monetary policy response in the form of rate hikes), gold has bounced back in 2017 and 2018. This is largely because inflation expectations fell after the first quarter of 2017, while the US dollar entered a long-term bear market. While recent tax cuts were expected to raise the outlook for inflation, ongoing weakness in the US dollar has overshadowed hopes for stronger inflation. Looking at gold in 2018, the US dollar bear market and a subdued outlook for inflation should keep gold on a strengthening path.
Sentiment: Gold has hit overbought levels according to technical indicators on a daily chart a few times in recent history. Each time, gold prices have pulled back after looking overbought. Looking at the Commitments of Traders report, speculator net positions are not yet at a bullish or bearish extreme. Accordingly, sentiment is not slowing down momentum behind the precious metal. In 2018, sentiment behind gold has been mostly bullish. If sentiment hits a bullish extreme, one should expect gold prices to experience a short-term pull back.
Economic data: With global economic growth accelerating and inflation subdued around the world, the fundamental outlook for gold is positive. Gold prices tend to strengthen when global growth is strong, as the US dollar tends to weaken under such conditions. On the other hand, low inflation ties the hands of central bankers wanting to raise interest rates, which also supports gold prices. Thus the outlook for gold, based on the current economic environment, remains positive.
In our previous commentary on gold, we wrote that gold prices would keep falling for three reasons: (1) accelerating US inflation, (2) decelerating growth outside the United States and (3) an ongoing slowdown across emerging markets. Ultimately, all three factors were supportive for the US dollar, gold’s ultimate nemesis. Since that time (May 17), gold prices have weakened from around $1,290 to $…
In our last take on the outlook for gold, we wrote that the combination of slowing growth outside the United States and rising inflation meant more weakness lay in store for the precious metal. When both US growth and inflation are high, the Fed is more likely to raise rates with the aid of supportive data. In an environment where US growth is outperforming its major peers, the US dollar also ten…
Last week, we wrote that weakness in the US dollar is masking growing risks. As equities, commodities and corporate credit are inversely correlated to USD, investors need to pay attention to the risk of a US dollar rebound. Since early 2017, gold prices have gradually strengthened. As the precious metal serves as a barometer for US dollar liquidity, the clear message from gold was that monetar…