Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, the most notable changes include falling net positions in the Australian dollar and rising net positions in the British pound. Changes in other currencies and commodities were fairly limited. In general, speculators continue to buy the euro and the British pound, while betting against the US dollar, the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar. T…

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Relative to recent history, this week’s Commitments of Traders Report contains few notable changes. Looking at the data, the most significant moves include rising net long positions in the euro and falling net long positions in the Australian dollar. Changes in other currencies and commodities were relatively modest. On the bullish side, speculators continue to accumulate net long positions in th…

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Changes in the latest Commitments of Traders Report are fairly similar to last week. Traders are once again increasing their bullish bets on the Japanese yen and the British pound. Yen speculators are now net long for the first time since November 2016. On the bearish side, traders continue to bet against commodity currencies including the Australian dollar and the Canadian. While speculators bou…

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This week’s Commitments of Traders Report includes quite a few notable changes. The number of long positions in the Canadian dollar have fallen by a significant degree, while speculators have also increased their short positions in the currency. The result is that speculators are now net short the Canadian dollar for the first time since July 2017. Speculators have also cut long positions in the …

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Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, notable changes include rising net speculator positions in the Japanese yen, British pound and Australian dollar. US dollar net positions also fell significantly this week. While crude oil remains at a bullish extreme (looking at 36-month trailing averages, and net positions as a proportion of total open interest), our implied measure of US do…

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Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, notable changes include rising net positions in the USD index and the Swiss franc, and falling net positions in the Australian dollar and gold. Similar to last week, the only asset under our coverage that remains at an extreme is crude oil. The commodity is currently at a bullish extreme, based on trailing 36-month average net positions and lo…

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Looking at the most recent Commitments of Traders report, notable changes include rising US dollar index and Swiss franc net positions, and falling Australian dollar net positions. Crude oil remains at a bullish extreme this week, based on 3-year trailing averages and net speculator positions as a proportion of total open interest. The purpose of this weekly report is to track how the consensus …

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Looking at last week’s Commitment of Traders report, notable changes include falling net short positions in the Japanese yen and falling net long positions in gold. Changes in other major currencies and commodities were fairly limited. Crude oil remains at a bullish extreme this week, based on 3-year trailing averages and net speculator positions as a proportion of total open interest. The purpo…

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Looking at last week’s Commitment of Traders report, the only notable changes were relating to net positions in the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and British pound. Changes in positioning were fairly limited for the US dollar, euro, gold and crude oil. Crude oil positions, based on 3-year trailing averages and net speculator positions as a proportion of total open interest, remains at a bullish ex…

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Following an eventful week in financial markets, this week’s Commitments of Traders report shows quite a few significant changes. Firstly, net long positions in the euro and the British pound are no longer at bullish extremes. Secondly, open interest in most currencies and commodities (except the yen) has fallen substantially. Following intense volatility, traders are more hesitant to maintain la…

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Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders report, bullish extremes continue in the euro, British pound and crude oil. Looking at net speculator positions as a proportion of open interest, long crude oil positions are the most at risk. While euro and British pound net positions are elevated relative to historical averages, open interest has also grown over time. Thus neither currency look exte…

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Tags: Euro

When will the Canadian dollar rebound? We take a closer look at the Canadian dollar and what the latest Commitments of Traders report says about the currency. Bank of Canada remains cautious - impacting trader optimism, but better data has us rethinking an earlier prediction.

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Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, bullish extremes continue in long crude oil, the euro and the British pound. Net long positions have also grown this week for the two currencies and the commodity. The purpose of this report is to track how the consensus is positioned across various currencies and commodities. When net long positions become crowded in either direction, we fla…

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Tags: US dollar

Looking at the latest Commitments of Traders report, bullish extremes continue in long crude oil, long British pound and long euro speculator net positions. While long crude oil and British pound positions have grown, long euro positions have fallen this week. The purpose of this report is to track how the consensus is positioned across various currencies and commodities. When net long positions…

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Tags: Crude oil

Looking at this week’s COT report, the British pound is now at a bullish extreme, while the Australian dollar is no longer at a bearish extreme. Bullish extremes continue in long euro and long crude oil speculator net positions. The purpose of this report is to track how the consensus is positioned across various currencies and commodities. When net long positions become crowded in either direct…

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Looking at the latest COT report, there are new extremes in short Australian dollars and long euro positions. Long crude oil net positions continue to look fairly crowded. The US dollar remains out of favor, but positioning is not yet at a bearish extreme. Notable e…

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Speculators have been adding to their long crude oil positions - but what does history have to say about this commodity? These positions are now at an extreme, with the trade becoming more crowded and US oil production increasing, but can it keep rallying? 

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Tags: Crude oil

The Australian dollar outlook isn't looking too good. Hampered by a COT report, new extremes in short AUD positions are a marked change from the long positions seen in recent history, bolstered by Aussie reliance on Chinese exports. And from our AUD forecast, looks like there's still room to fall. 

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Following this week's COT report, we're taking a closer look at the euro forecast. As traders build their long euro positions, all signs are indicating an overbought market. With the global GDP growth decelerating, will those long positions hold their value? 

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Tags: Euro

Looking at this week’s COT report, long crude oil and short Swiss franc are once again in extreme territory. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year trends. Changes…

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Tags: Gold

Looking at this week’s COT report, short crude oil and short Swiss franc remain in extreme territory. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year trends. This week’s C…

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Tags: Crude oil

Looking at the COT report for this week, short yen no longer looks like an extreme. Extremes in sentiment continue in crude oil and the Swiss franc. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical tr…

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Tags: US dollar

Looking at this week’s COT report, extremes include the Swiss franc, crude oil and a new bearish extreme in the Japanese yen. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year trends. The last t…

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Tags: Japanese yen

Looking at the latest COT report, extremes this week include crude oil and a new bearish extreme in the Swiss Franc. While long Canadian dollars looked like an extreme position last week, this is no longer the case today. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard...

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Looking at this week’s COT report, Canadian dollar longs remain at bullish extremes (despite a big change in net long positions), while crude longs are starting to look extreme based on 3-year trailing net positions. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year...

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Tags: Crude oil

Looking at the latest COT report, only the Canadian dollar remains in extreme territory. Following this week’s sharp decline in the Canadian dollar, the large position is likely to decline over the coming weeks. The euro and the US dollar are no longer in extreme territory as speculators build up their long US dollar positions. 

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The extremes in this week’s CFTC data are the same as last week: long euro, British pound and Canadian dollar positions and short US dollar. This is shown below. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year…

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Tags: Japanese yen

The extremes in this week’s CFTC data are in long euro, British pound and Canadian dollar positions and in short US dollar positions. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year trends. As speculators reduced their long Australian dollar positions this week (73.3k long this week vs. 78.0k last week), long AUD positions are now below extreme levels.

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This week’s CFTC data shows that speculators continue to maintain large short dollar positions while staying long euros, Canadian dollars and Australian dollars. Previous extremes continue in the US dollar, euro, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. This week’s interesting addition is the British pound – speculators are now long the pound having been short the currency since November 2015.

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