Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders report, bullish extremes continue in the euro, British pound and crude oil. Looking at net speculator positions as a proportion of open interest, long crude oil positions are the most at risk. While euro and British pound net positions are elevated relative to historical averages, open interest has also grown over time. Thus neither currency look exte…

Published 
Tags: Euro

When will the Canadian dollar rebound? We take a closer look at the Canadian dollar future forecast and what the latest Commitments of Traders report says about the currency. Bank of Canada remains cautious - impacting trader optimism, but better data has us rethinking an earlier prediction.

Published 

Looking at this week’s Commitments of Traders Report, bullish extremes continue in long crude oil, the euro and the British pound. Net long positions have also grown this week for the two currencies and the commodity. The purpose of this report is to track how the consensus is positioned across various currencies and commodities. When net long positions become crowded in either direction, we fla…

Published 
Tags: US dollar

Looking at the latest Commitments of Traders report, bullish extremes continue in long crude oil, long British pound and long euro speculator net positions. While long crude oil and British pound positions have grown, long euro positions have fallen this week. The purpose of this report is to track how the consensus is positioned across various currencies and commodities. When net long positions…

Published 
Tags: Crude oil

Looking at this week’s COT report, the British pound is now at a bullish extreme, while the Australian dollar is no longer at a bearish extreme. Bullish extremes continue in long euro and long crude oil speculator net positions. The purpose of this report is to track how the consensus is positioned across various currencies and commodities. When net long positions become crowded in either direct…

Published 

Looking at the latest COT report, there are new extremes in short Australian dollars and long euro positions. Long crude oil net positions continue to look fairly crowded. The US dollar remains out of favor, but positioning is not yet at a bearish extreme. Notable e…

Published 

In this week’s COT report, most major currencies and commodities remain outside of bullish or bearish extremes. Instead, the only position that looks extreme is long crude oil. Over the past week, speculators have added to their long crude positions, and there are now 679,047 futures and options contracts long the commodity. Given the size of the long crude crowd, even a small pullback in crude o…

Published 
Tags: Crude oil

In this week’s eventful COT report, there are new extremes in long British pound and short Australian dollar positions. Short Swiss franc net positions are no longer at an extreme, while long crude oil remains a consensus long position in the speculator community. This is shown below. Notable extremes are…

Published 

Looking at this week’s COT report, extremes continue in long crude oil and short Swiss franc positions. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year trends. Looki…

Published 
Tags: Euro

Looking at this week’s COT report, long crude oil and short Swiss franc are once again in extreme territory. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year trends. Changes…

Published 
Tags: Gold

Looking at this week’s COT report, short crude oil and short Swiss franc remain in extreme territory. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year trends. This week’s C…

Published 
Tags: Crude oil

Looking at the COT report for this week, short yen no longer looks like an extreme. Extremes in sentiment continue in crude oil and the Swiss franc. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical tr…

Published 
Tags: US dollar

Looking at this week’s COT report, extremes include the Swiss franc, crude oil and a new bearish extreme in the Japanese yen. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year trends. The last t…

Published 
Tags: Japanese yen

Looking at the latest COT report, extremes this week include crude oil and a new bearish extreme in the Swiss Franc. While long Canadian dollars looked like an extreme position last week, this is no longer the case today. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard...

Published 

Looking at this week’s COT report, Canadian dollar longs remain at bullish extremes (despite a big change in net long positions), while crude longs are starting to look extreme based on 3-year trailing net positions. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year...

Published 
Tags: Crude oil

Looking at the latest COT report, only the Canadian dollar remains in extreme territory. Following this week’s sharp decline in the Canadian dollar, the large position is likely to decline over the coming weeks. The euro and the US dollar are no longer in extreme territory as speculators build up their long US dollar positions. 

Published 

The extremes in this week’s CFTC data are the same as last week: long euro, British pound and Canadian dollar positions and short US dollar. This is shown below. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year…

Published 
Tags: Japanese yen

The extremes in this week’s CFTC data are in long euro, British pound and Canadian dollar positions and in short US dollar positions. Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and 3-year trends. As speculators reduced their long Australian dollar positions this week (73.3k long this week vs. 78.0k last week), long AUD positions are now below extreme levels.

Published 

This week’s CFTC data shows that speculators continue to maintain large short dollar positions while staying long euros, Canadian dollars and Australian dollars. Previous extremes continue in the US dollar, euro, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. This week’s interesting addition is the British pound – speculators are now long the pound having been short the currency since November 2015.

Published