Given the relatively quiet start to this week, trading will remain light until important data is announced later this week. For the US dollar, markets will be closely watching Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s Consumer Price Index figures. Expectations for a rate hike in December are running very high, with CME’s FedWatch Tool indicating an 86.7% probability of the Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points on December 13.

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With North Korea in the headlines again, the allure of gold’s safe haven qualities makes it look like a wise purchase. Gold has rallied several times in 2017 on North Korea-related news headlines, given escalating rhetoric from both Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. Yet gold prices have not been able to break out, and remain trapped in range between $1,050 and $1,350. The precious metal made its most…

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With tensions in the Korean Peninsula and doubts about another rate hike in the rear view mirror, gold has been selling off after peaking above $1,350. Given expectations that the Federal Reserve is looking to raise interest rates in December, the market has been eagerly anticipating today’s non-farm payrolls figures. As the Fed is mandated to maintain full employment, markets are particularly ke…

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In our last take on the subject, we suggested that in a world that is fundamentally oversupplied, marginal demand was the main driver of crude oil prices. Given China’s voracious appetite for oil this year, prices have been supported by a 12%+ increase in year-over-year physical demand from China. The bear case for oil assumes falling future demand from China in rate-of-change terms, given econom…

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