USD/JPY - US dollar to Japanese yen

USD/JPY, or US dollar to Japanese yen, is a heavily traded major currency pair. Given the significant trading relationship between the United States and Japan, USD/JPY is watched closely around the world. More importantly, Japan is the largest international creditor in the world, and the biggest foreign investor in the US. Given Japan's low growth and low interest rates, the yen tends to sell off during economic booms. During a downturn, the yen tends to strengthen sharply as yen-based investors sell their international investments and return to yen-based investments. As such, USD/JPY is seen as a proxy for global risk sentiment. 

Outlook
Bullish

US dollar daily update

The US dollar is currently steady against all major currencies. Yesterday, the US dollar index (a broad measure of the currency) ended the day slightly lower after making four consecutive higher-highs earlier this week. While the buck was much weaker at the outset of the day, buyers pushed up the currency during New York trading hours. Today's US dollar index trading range remains 95.50 - 97.0. 

There are no fundamentals developments driving the dollar today. After most major financial assets entered overbought or oversold conditions earlier this week, currency markets are adjusting accordingly. Looking at the US dollar, there may be an opportunity to go long the currency if the buck falls towards the low-end of its trading range in the near future. 

Turning to economic data, initial jobless claims continued decelerating this week. This is a positive development for the US economy, and suggests that the labor market continues to fire on all cylinders. Given the Federal Reserve's mandate to maintain full employment, the health of the labor market is watched closely by the Fed. As all (backwards-looking) economic data points to accelerating growth and inflation, the Fed is more likely to continue raising rates. In turn, this helps the buck. Our outlook on the dollar remains bullish.   

USD/JPY is flat and currently trading above 110.80. EUR/USD is flat and trading above 1.1370. GBP/USD is flat, and currently above 1.2720.

Date Event Actual Previous
August 14 Export Prices YoY JUL 4.3% 5.3%
August 14 Import Prices YoY JUL 4.8% 4.7%
August 15 Retail Sales YoY JUL 6.4% 6.1%
August 15 Capacity Utilization JUL 78.1% 78.1%
August 15 Industrial Production YoY JUL 4.2% 4%
August 15 Manufacturing Production YoY JUL 2.8% 2.3%
August 15 Business Inventories MoM JUN 0.1% 0.3%
August 16 Building Permits JUL 1.311M 1.292M
August 16 Housing Starts JUL 1.168M 1.158M
August 16 Initial Jobless Claims 11/AUG 212K 214K
August 17 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel AUG 97.9
Updated 

Japanese yen daily update

The Japanese yen is mixed today. The yen is weakening against the euro and the Australian dollar, while strengthening against the US dollar and the British pound. Yesterday, the yen weakened and fell against the US dollar. Notably, USD/JPY is running into sellers above ¥111.0 despite steadying risk sentiment. Today's USD/JPY trading range is 110.10 - 113.20.

Taking a look at financial markets yesterday, risk sentiment improved following news that China's vice-commerce minister will lead a delegation to the US to revive trade talks between the two countries. The news boosted risk sentiment during the Asian trading session. Sentiment was further enhanced by solid US earnings reports, supporting US stock markets. Risk currencies finished the day higher, while the safe haven yen was lower. Risk assets have come under strong selling pressure in recent history. Yesterday's recovery in 'risk on' currencies will be a a welcome relief, but the outlook for global growth remains negative. Our outlook for the Japanese yen remains bearish.

USD/JPY is currently trading above 110.70. EUR/JPY is up slightly, and trading above 126.30. GBP/JPY is down slightly, and trading above 140.80.

Date Event Actual Previous
August 14 Capacity Utilization MoM JUN -2.2% -2.1%
August 14 Industrial Production YoY Final JUN -0.9% 4.2%
August 16 Balance of Trade JUL -¥231B ¥721B
August 16 Exports YoY JUL 3.9% 6.7%
August 16 Foreign Bond Investment 11/AUG ¥123.9B ¥1171B
August 16 Stock Investment by Foreigners 11/AUG ¥-107.1B -¥225.2B
August 16 Imports YoY JUL 14.6% 2.5%
Updated 

US dollar to Japanese yen Outlook

Outlook
Bullish

Updated 

US dollar analysis

Even as US outlook darkens, US dollar set to keep strengthening

In our last commentary on the US dollar, we wrote that the buck was set to move higher given underlying economic trends. Specifically, US growth and inflation was likely to keep accelerating, while the opposite was likely to happen in most major regions outside the United States. Following the publication of our last commentary, the US dollar index has strengthened from around 91.80 to around...

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As US dollar rises, time to get bearish

In our previous commentary on the US dollar, we warned that a weak dollar was hiding significant risks in growth-sensitive assets such as equities and European currencies. As the world’s reserve currency, the buck is inversely correlated to most financial assets because most cross-border lending is conducted in dollars. Thanks to a slowdown in economic growth outside the United States coupled wit…

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US dollar weakness masks growing risks

In our previous take on the US dollar in early February, we wrote that the currency was set to remain weak. At the time, ex-US growth was accelerating, while speculator sentiment was only mildly bearish. While dollar bulls have argued that rate hikes should help the currency, we wrote that expectations for monetary tightening were rising around the world, limiting the impact from the Fed’s action…

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Japanese yen analysis

Japanese yen: safe haven or inflation proxy?

In our last commentary on the Japanese yen, we wrote that the currency was looking excessively weak against the euro. In particular, we stated that bullish catalysts driving EUR/JPY were at risk as speculator positioning in both long euro and short yen trades were looking extreme. In addition, we flagged changes to the Bank of Japan’s “yield curve control” program as a potential risk for yen stre…

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EUR/JPY: An “easy” long idea gets trickier

In early 2017, doubts regarding the integrity of the Eurozone led many to take refuge in the Japanese yen. Unlike the euro, the Japanese yen exhibits classic safe haven characteristics and tends to strengthen during downturns. Following the Brexit referendum vote and US presidential elections, few were willing to bet on opinion polls that predicted Macron’s victory. Similar to political events in…

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Japanese yen: Bank of Japan versus interest rates

Japan has suffered from weak growth and inflation since the global financial crisis, and the Bank of Japan has frequently experimented with unorthodox monetary policies. In September 2016, the BoJ decided to directly target long-term interest rates. The so-called “yield curve control” (YCC) program fixed 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields at 0%. If yields deviated from the BoJ’s target…

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Economic calendar


US dollar to Japanese yen History

Significance of the USD/JPY pair

US dollar to Japanese yen is the second most traded currency pair in the world (after EUR/USD). Beyond Japan’s economic significance as the world’s third-largest economy (or fourth, if one considers the Eurozone to be an economic region), the country is also unique as it is the world’s largest international creditor. This means that Japan has more international assets versus liabilities. According to the Ministry of Finance, Japan’s net international investment position was ¥349,112 billion (almost $3T USD) at the end of 2016. The country’s position as one of the largest creditors to the United States drives trading in the USD/JPY pair. During economic booms, USD/JPY tends to weaken as yen-based investors seek returns outside Japan. In an economic downturn, the currency tends to strengthen as Japanese yen investors move their funds back into their home currency. Thus the US dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate is often seen as a barometer of risk appetite.

Relative GDP growth rates for the United States versus Japan are highlighted below:

12-30-2017 US JP growth
Source: The World Bank, annual GDP growth

 

2005 – mid-2007: The carry trade era

Prior to the global financial crisis, the yen was a popular funding currency for the carry trade. When currency speculators engage in carry trades, they borrow a currency with low interest rates (such as the yen) and invest the proceeds in currencies that offer relatively higher interest rates (such as the US dollar or the Australian dollar). In the early 2000s, the Bank of Japan set very low interest rates in order to discourage investors from holding the currency. As such, the currency was borrowed heavily by speculators in order to invest in high-yielding investments.

As the yen’s popularity as a funding instrument grew, the currency depreciated prior to the global financial crisis as a result. Looking at USD/JPY, the pair peaked in June 2007 around 124.

 

Mid-2007 – Late 2008: Build up to the crisis

Starting in the summer of 2007, currency speculators bought back the Japanese yen as fears grew regarding the health of the US housing market. As carry trades began unravelling, the yen began rallying. During this time, many believed that issues relating to the US housing market would be confined to the United States. Nonetheless, global risk appetite was falling during this time and yen-based investors sought to sell their international investments. After trading as low as 96 in March 2007, USD/JPY peaked around 110 in August 2008.

 

Late 2008 – 2009: The global financial crisis

By the summer of 2008, the US housing crisis had morphed into a global financial crisis. Most global currencies including the euro, British pound and the Australian dollar began selling off sharply relative to the US dollar. As we have described in a previous article, this is because global banks were raising funds by borrowing US dollars in Eurodollar (offshore US dollar) markets. These funds were used to invest in US mortgages and in international investments. Starting in 2008, lenders in Eurodollar markets began doubting the creditworthiness of many borrowers. As Eurodollar markets began freezing up, banks lost access to US dollar funding and the currency was in short supply.

Looking at USD/JPY, while the dollar rallied sharply in early 2008, the pair began selling off by August 2008. Relative to the US dollar, the shortage in Japanese yen was even greater. By the end of 2008, USD/JPY had fallen to around 87.

 

2009 - Late 2012: The world goes ZIRP

While Japan was the first country to experiment with zero interest rate policies (ZIRP), the US Federal Reserve also dropped interest rates to 0% following the financial crisis. Beyond ZIRP, the Fed also implemented several rounds of quantitative easing (buying bonds using its balance sheet) during this era. Prior to the crisis, the Bank of Japan had the loosest monetary policies, and this helped the yen stay weak. Following the crisis, many central banks were also running easy monetary policies, and the yen strengthened.

The Bank of Japan directly intervened in currency markets four times between 2010 and 2011 in order to weaken the yen. Yet the interventions had a limited impact on USD/JPY, and the exchange rate continued to fall throughout this time. In October 2012, USD/JPY was trading around 78.

 

Late 2012 - 2016: Abenomics and Kuroda

2012 was an election year in Japan, and a general election was scheduled for December. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan government was highly unpopular following increases to consumption tax amid a slowing economy. Shinzo Abe, the Liberal Democratic Party candidate, campaigned on a platform of “Abenomics”. Inspired by “Reaganomics” (the economic agenda of former US President Ronald Reagan), Abenomics comprised of three priorities: (1) substantial monetary easing, (2) fiscal spending and (3) economic reform. As Abe rose in the polls, currency traders began increasing their bets on more monetary easing from the Bank of Japan. As a result, USD/JPY began rallying sharply.

This time, currency markets accurately predicted Abe’s victory, and the yen continued to weaken. By April 2013, the exchange rate had strengthened above 100. Remarkably, the yen weakened even as the US Federal Reserve launched QE3 (its third round of quantitative easing following the crisis).

Following the appointment of Haruhiko Kuroda as governor of the Bank of Japan, the BoJ unveiled a substantial monetary stimulus program. Kuroda announced that the Bank’s balance sheet would double in size by the end of 2014, and committed to open-ended asset buying. Specifically, he used the Bank’s balance sheet to purchase government bonds, corporate bonds as well as Japanese equities. The BoJ also abandoned its interest rate target and instead chose to target the size of the monetary base instead.

In late 2014, the sharp decline of crude oil prices resulted in further yen weakness. Beyond falling crude oil prices, the Federal Reserve was signaling a tightening bias in the future. As the Eurozone and Japan remained committed to quantitative easing and negative rates, the US dollar soared as a result. USD/JPY ended 2015 around 117.

 

2016 – 2017: Risk off/risk on

At the outset of 2016 (following a Fed rate hike in December 2015), global risk appetite began declining following poor US GDP growth figures. The upcoming Brexit referendum and US presidential elections later in the year also had markets concerned. As such, investors bought safe haven assets such as bonds and gold. Given the yen’s safe haven status, the currency also began strengthening. Looking at USD/JPY, the pair weakened to 100 following the Brexit vote in June 2016. The yen remained fairly strong until the US presidential elections.

In September 2016, the Bank of Japan reverted to targeting interest rates instead of the monetary base alone. This time, the Bank implemented a policy known as ‘yield curve control’ (YCC). As per YCC, the Bank of Japan maintained 10-year government bond yields at 0% by buying and selling bonds. If bond yields were to rise above 0%, the BoJ was willing to issue an unlimited number of bonds in order to drive yields down to its target. This made the currency exceptionally sensitive to global interest rates. In a recent take on the BoJ’s policies, we wrote that Kuroda was likely to signal the end of YCC in 2018.

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections came as a surprise to many, and the yen initially strengthened. A few hours following his victory, markets began betting on higher growth and inflation. This was particularly the case once the Republican Party gained control of both houses of Congress. As bonds and gold began selling off, the yen soon followed. By December 2016, USD/JPY was trading above 118.

After rallying in the previous year, the US dollar performed very poorly in 2017. As Trump failed to pass healthcare reforms in early 2017 and inflation came in below expectations, the US dollar sold off accordingly. As we wrote in late 2017, sustained USD strength is unlikely without better inflation figures. USD/JPY gradually weakened in 2017 and ended the year just above 112.50.